The stock market hasn’t done very well at all, and is down roughly 5% from it’s highs just in the last month with another day in the red shaping up for today (the S&P is trading around 1400, having fallen from roughly 1470 earlier this month).
I think another 4-5% before the election could be devastating to President Obama, and given how quickly we’ve shed the amount we have, a drop of that amount (or close to it) could definitely happen, especially with the way that the market has been trending down. It only takes a few tenths of a percentage points a day to add up to a pretty big drop.
Such a large drop would be roughly a double digit drop and would signify a pretty big warning sign about the economy. Since the stock market is forward looking (meaning the movement is largely centered upon what investors believe is going to happen down the line), this would be a very bad sign.